MDMP

Order Description REQUIREMENT #1: Running Estimate (10 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages) You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR in the past tense. Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate, as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to: • Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution. • Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations. • The appropriate balance of speed and security. • The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective. • The anticipated distances covered by, time required to, and rates of movement for: o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp o actions on the objective o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point o Japanese counterattacks. • How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces. Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the fatal decision, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. The goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hours before needing two hours for food and rest could be helpful to LTC Mucci and his staff. REQUIREMENT #7: COA Analysis, Comparison & Recommendation (20 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages) On 27 JAN, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.” • Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow. • Stay in the camp and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us. • Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us. A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & define the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation. NOTE: The MDMP is an adaptation of the Scientific Method. A Problem is an Observation, Mission Analysis- Research, Mission- Hypothesis, and Course of Action Analysis (Wargame)- Experiment. Like a scientist, the tactician can use a simple process to analyze and compare options a. List facts and assumptions. Here, you do not need to repeat facts and assumptions from your Requirement #1 Running Estimate. Focus on facts and assumptions which you may not have included in your movement estimate when you assumed the locals could provide enough carts. Place all facts and assumptions before the analysis of your COAs, rather than listing (and repeating) facts for each COA. b. Establish measurable evaluation criteria. If you were buying a car, you might consider cost, carrying capacity, and fuel economy. DO NOT USE SCREENING CRITERIA. LTC Mucci feels that each of HIS suggestions is feasible, suitable, distinguishable and acceptable to him. None is yet complete, but he is confident his staff will make them so. Likewise, broad undefined terms such as the Principles of War are normally not useful criteria for evaluating a unique problem. As in an experiment or car purchase, evaluation criteria must be variables, rather than constants. If experimenting with pendulums, pendulum length, weight, and arc are each variables, which the scientist measures when analyzing the period of motion. In this scenario, the speed of the POWs movement is a constant (and should be listed as a fact or assumption); while the time until link-up with 6th Army is different for each COA (in which one or both forces are moving different distances) and could serve as a useful evaluation criteria. c. Analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion. • Although there is a tendency to organize the course of action analysis by the evaluation criteria, Step 4 of the MDMP (FM 6-0 p 9-25 through 9-34) focuses on an analysis by course of action. In other words, you don't have to write a paragraph for each evaluation criterion as you explain your COA analysis. • For instance, we would NOT have a paragraph in which we analyze the "Time from initiation of the assault until completion of link-up with 6th Army" in which we use comparative terms (such as fastest and slowest), and then have another paragraph which analyzes the COA against another evaluation criterion. • Instead, we should analyze each COA against the evaluation criteria (be sure to include ALL of the criteria), using our facts and assumptions. For example, if we assume that without carts the POWs could walk at 1 mph during daylight and .5 mph at night, and further assume that the Rangers will begin their assault at 2000 hrs., then through analysis we may estimate that the POWs and Rangers could get to Guimba in about 60 hours. • For part c, your answer should be approximately a half-page narrative for each contingency presented in Requirement #7. d. Compare the COAs to each other using a decision matrix or other technique. Clearly indicate if high or low scores are best, and explain any weighting you apply. e. Make and justify a recommendation.