Statistics

Place a Bid Amount you will charge($) A 10% transaction fee will be added to your bid Expected Completion Date & Time (Pacific Time) Bids Placed by Scholars Scholar Rating Bid Amt + 10% fee Completion Time (Pacific Time) Globalexpert - Top Scholar 66 reviews $110.00 11/15/2015 12:00 am technologies - Top Scholar 307 reviews $110.00 11/15/2015 12:00 am tutormasteryy - Top Scholar 58 reviews $110.00 11/16/2015 12:00 am Actions Details Posted By View Student Profile Subject Mathematics Due By (Pacific Time) 11/14/2015 06:30 pm QUESTION 1 1. Use the following information to answer the next five questions: The table below shows prospective profits (losses are negative numbers) for Bearcat Construction, depending on what decision is made and what state of nature occurs. State of Nature Decision s 1 s 2 s 3 d 1 30 80 -30 d 2 100 30 -40 d 3 -80 -10 120 d 4 20 20 20 Use the information to determine: what Bearcat should do if an optimistic strategy is used? d1 d2 d3 d4 1 points QUESTION 2 1. What should Bearcat do if a conservative strategy is used? d1 d2 d3 d4 1 points QUESTION 3 1. What should Bearcat do if minimax regret is the strategy? d1 d2 d3 d4 1 points QUESTION 4 1. Assume the probabilities of the three states of nature are, respectively, .25, .50, .25. Using the expected value approach, what should Bearcat do? d1 d2 d3 d4 1 points QUESTION 5 1. What is the EVPI (expected value of perfect information) for Bearcat? 1 points QUESTION 6 1. Use the following information to answer the next three questions: Mickey is considering investing some money that he inherited. The following payoff table gives the profits that would be realized during the next year for three different investment alternatives and two possible states of nature (good or poor economy): Alternative Good Economy Poor Economy Stock market $80,000 -$20,000 Bonds $30,000 $20,000 CDs $23,000 $23,000 Probability 0.5 0.5 What decision would maximize expected profits for Mickey? Stock market Bonds CDs 1 points QUESTION 7 1. What is the maximum Mickey should pay for a perfect forecast of the economy? 1 points QUESTION 8 1. If, instead, the probability of a poor economy was .75 and the probability of a good economy was .25, what decision would maximize Mickey's profits? Stock market Bonds CDs 1 points QUESTION 9 1. Use the following information to answer the next six questions: COM-TECH is considering whether to apply for a grant from the government to use wireless technology. If awarded the grant, COM-TECH would need to decide what type of technology (microwave, cellular or infrared) they would need to acquire equipment. In addition to equipment cost, COM-TECH must spend money on research and development (R&D) but these costs are uncertain. COM-TECH developed the decision tree shown below with payouts shown on the right and probabilities shown above each item. What is the expected value of branch 4 (microwave)? 1 points QUESTION 10 1. What is the expected value of branch 5 (cellular)? 1 points QUESTION 11 1. What is the expected value of branch 6 (infrared)? 1 points QUESTION 12 1. Which of the following is the optimal decision strategy for COM-TECH? 1. Submit proposal; 2. Choose to receive grant; 3. Use infrared. 1. Submit proposal; 2. If receive grant, use cellular. 1. Submit proposal; 2. If receive grant, use infrared. 1. Do not submit proposal. 1 points QUESTION 13 1. What is the expected payout of the project for COM-TECH? 1 points QUESTION 14 1. Fill in the missing values of COM-TECH's risk profile: Value Probability .50 .05 .45 1 points QUESTION 15 1. Use the following information to answer the next six questions. (To answer these questions, you will want to construct a decision tree showing Monica's options and payouts and probabilities.} Monica wants to begin a toy sailboat business and because of the expense involved in developing molds and acquiring the necessary equipment, wants to conduct a market study to see if the market is adequate to support her business. The study will cost $10,000 and can be either favorable or unfavorable. Her basic decision is to build a small or large shop or no shop at all. Expected profits are shown in the table below. Monica estimates that the probability of a favorable market given a favorable market study is 0.8. The probability of an unfavorable market given an unfavorable market study is estimated to be 0.9. (Thus, the probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable market study is 0.2 and the probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable market study is 0.1.) Monica feels that there is a 50-50 chance that the market study will be favorable. Of course, Monica could bypass the market study and simply make the decision. If she did no study, she estimates that the probability of a favorable market is 0.6. Monica's expected profits are shown in the following table: Expected Profits Market Shop Size Favorable Unfavorable Large Shop $90,000 -$30,000 Small Shop $60,000 -$20,000 If Monica chose not to conduct the market study, what would be the expected value of building a large shop? 1 points QUESTION 16 1. If Monica chose to conduct the market study and the study predicted a favorable market, what option should she choose? Large shop Small shop No shop 1 points QUESTION 17 1. If Monica chose to conduct the market study and the study predicted an unfavorable market, what option should she choose? Large shop Small shop No shop 1 points QUESTION 18 1. What is the expected value for Monica if she conducted the market study? 1 points QUESTION 19 1. What is the expected value for Monica if she does not conduct the market study? 1 poin QUESTION 20 1. Which of the following is the optimal decision strategy for Monica? 1. Conduct the market study; 2. If favorable, build a large shop. If unfavorable, build no shop. 1. Conduct the market study; 2. If favorable, build a small shop. If unfavorable, build no shop. 1. Conduct the market study; 2. If favorable, build a large shop. If unfavorable, build a small shop. 1. Do not conduct market study; 2. Build a large shop.